SUMMER RAINS DECLINE IN BREEDING AREAS

KEY POINTS
• Current situation: calm in all regions
• September: light to moderate rainfall continued in the northern Sahel with decline in the second half of the month and withdrawal of the southwest monsoon in Indo-Pakistan border
• October: locust numbers decrease in the summer breeding areas with likely to slight increase in areas of northwest Mauritania and the Red Sea coast of Yemen
• November: potential locust increase in coastal plains in Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea and Egypt


The Desert Locust situation continued to remain calm during September.

Only low numbers of solitarious adults persisted in Mauritania, Niger, Sudan, and Yemen. Few hoppers were seen in parts of northwest Mauritania and in the Red Sea coastal plain of Yemen. Light to moderate rainfall continued in the northern Sahel but was declined during the second half of the month from Mauritania to western Eritrea, and vegetation started to dry out in many places. Similarly, the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon finish in Indo-Pakistan border during the last week of September. During the forecast, locust numbers will continue to decrease in the summer breeding areas but are likely to increase slightly in current areas of northwest Mauritania and in the Red Sea coast of Yemen and start to appear in the coastal plains in Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and maybe Eritrea and Egypt from November onwards. Consecutively, the locusts will continue to be remain well below threatening levels and no significant developments are likely.

Regular surveys should be maintained in the breeding areas.